Saturday, May 26, 2012

X FACTOR US 2: SPOILERS

So very preliminary spoilers so far:

Oh, and by the way, get ready for this, because as Simon has rigged it, er, said, "This is the year of the groups". Louis Walsh also tells the other judges in Kansas City that "the US should try to make a better boyband than in the UK"



Thursday, May 24, 2012

IDOL SONGS, YOUTUBE VIEWS BY CONTESTANT

Ok, this is going to be a pretty important thread for Idol's prospects in the mainstream. Since everything is more or less being relayed via the Internet nowadays, it's important to get a ton of hits in your youtube views. Has Idol done that in the new world? Let's take a look, after the jump:


THE LIFE OF IDOL FLOPS AND FILLER: PRETTY BLEAK STUFF

Dear Jeremy Rosado, Shannon Magrane, Erika Van Pelt, Heejun Han, Deandre Brackensick, and any of the major flops in AI11 (likely), this is what you'll be facing, and perhaps news agencies will eventually be getting quotes from you in the future, about life after Idol:



Wednesday, May 23, 2012

EPOCH 4 (MORE WGWGS): THE CONCEPT OF "PIGGYBACKING" AND WHY IT MATTERS POST-IDOL

So as mentioned, Epoch 3 was a trainwreck: WGWG infestation led to massive flops, and Idol went zig with soft, coffeehouse rock while the world went zag with electropop and hip hop. There couldn't have been a greater clash in styles ever since the Jackie Chan met Chris Tucker in Rush Hour. So what did Epoch 4 have in store for us?



Well, let's just say Idol didn't learn its lesson (if you can already tell from the title above). Take a look after the jump:

EPOCH 3 (THE WGWG ERA): THE CONCEPT OF "PIGGYBACKING" AND WHY IT MATTERS POST-IDOL

This deals with 2008-2010, or AI7-AI9, and when Idol allowed its instruments and unleashed KrisAllenty LeeDeWyzeDavid Cook, er I mean, Kristy Lee Cook, on us, we got our WGWG era--the WGWGs started happening. And it's continuing to this day.




We'll see, er, what caused Idol's harm in the mainstream, below the jump:

Tuesday, May 22, 2012

EPOCH 2 (IDOL'S GOLDEN YEARS): THE CONCEPT OF "PIGGYBACKING" AND WHY IT MATTERS POST-IDOL

Continuing on to 2005-2007, or AI4-AI6, when Idol unleashed its rockers and had their contestants pull their weight (we won't be hearing that after this).



This is a continuation of my last article, the first epoch.


Monday, May 21, 2012

EPOCH 1 (AND SO IT BEGINS): THE CONCEPT OF "PIGGYBACKING" AND WHY IT MATTERS POST-IDOL

The concept of this post derives heavily from my other post where I questioned Idol's relevance in the music industry by drawing out treasure troves of data on its more successful contestants. I already brought up the concept of "piggybacking"--or basically leeching off of an artist who's having success at that time--in that particular post. It's the key here--as you'll see, why did Idol have successes in Kelly Clarkson, Carrie Underwood, and Chris Daughtry? The way to get one foot in the door is to piggyback.

My goal is to list the top 10 best selling albums and singles of each year that Idol ran on, and highlight the ones that are similar (or somewhat similar) to Idol's more successful contestants.

And really, the goal is this:


Here we'll focus on Epoch 1, which is generally known as seasons AI1-AI3, or 2002 to 2004, when Idol was finding its footing, didn't have rockers, encouraged diva belters, etc. We'll take a look at how those contestants did in the real world, and what sold back then:

Sunday, May 20, 2012

IDOLMETRICS: THE FINAL BATTLE: JESSICA VS PHILLIP.

Now, let's focus on the two remaining contestants duking it out to become the winner. Ladies first, so Jessica:

IDOLMETRICS: AI11 CONTESTANTS, #3-13: HOW THEY FARED STATISTICALLY

In a continuation from the last Idolmetrics post, this shows the how the contestants gained the score they did.

IDOLMETRICS: SONG CREATIVITY/SINGING MOMENTUM, WEEK BY WEEK

As you've most likely read from my previous mathematics (or some would say Idolmetrics) studies, these calculations are based on song creativity and how well the contestant sings their song. If they sing a song that's been done a ton on Idol, they get docked points because their score is then compared to the average of that song. If they do a new song, the contestant receives a straight up score (that explains why Phil Phillips routinely ranks high; he needs to put less effort to produce the same amount of impact as a Joshua Ledet or Jessica Sanchez, given how often they choose songs that have been done many times). The numbers are scaled and added to each other each week to give a composite of the contestant's momentum below.

THE STATE OF AMERICAN IDOL VS THE CHARTS (AKA THE BRITISH AND CANADIANS DOMINATE!)



I'm wondering if Nigel instituted this British theme because there's just way too many British artists churning out hits in America. Check out this chart (all the British related hits are circled):

IDOL SONGS DONE ON TOUR (AKA HAVE THEY CLEARED THESE SONGS FOR THE SHOW?)



Didn't know where to put this, but I think an interesting theme would be:

Decade done by Past Idol Contestants On Tour
Separate it to:
1960s and before
1970s
1980s
1990s
2000s and beyond

IDOL: AVOIDING SONGS 1990s AND BEYOND LIKE THE PLAGUE



EDITOR'S NOTE: NEWEST ARTICLE FOR TODAY. COMPARING IDOL'S SONGS IN 11 SEASONS WITH THE SONGS DONE ON THE SING OFF, THE VOICE, AND THE X FACTOR US. I'M LOOKING FOR HOW MANY SONGS '90s AND BEYOND THAT THESE SHOWS HAVE DONE, COMPARED TO IDOL.

I'll also keep this for posterity, because it's an interesting topic: Songs done on The Voice in two seasons that never been done on Idol for 11 seasons. And there's a ton of them--I think one of those random websites said that the Voice has a pretty high current song rating, and we know how Idol's fossils goes. And given that both are in the US, one would think if it's done on the Voice, it should be on Idol, because there aren't any real clearance issues, right? I'm also going to include the audition songs, and put an asterisk on the ones that weren't done on the finals, but were done elsewhere.

IDOL'S CLEARED SONG LIST



Possible theme weeks: (6 or more songs cleared for an artist)
IN RED HAVE BEEN USED FOR THEME NIGHTS ALREADY

The Rolling Stones (115)
Sam Cooke (86)
Frank Sinatra (77)
The Beatles (75)
Elvis Presley (70)
Nickelback (59)

A CONVERSATION BETWEEN RYAN, JIMMY AND NIGEL, REGARDING POTENTIAL WINNERS

May 11, Friday 5:00 AM

Nigel and Ryan walk into Jimmy Iovine's Interscope office to discuss who should be the winner of the show.

*Jimmy: Alright, so we have an important issue to discuss. Who the hell I'm going to have to market as the winner of this show. Nigel, can you tell who's been leading the votes all this time?

IDOLMETRICS: PREDICTING IDOL VOTING PATTERNS, FROM T13 TO T5



EDITOR'S NOTE: THIS POST WAS FIRST WRITTEN MAY 4, 2012.


RANDY VS MATH: SONG ANALYSIS AND THE ABILITY TO SING


*EDITOR'S NOTE: THIS POST WAS DATED BACK ON APRIL 23, 2012, AFTER THE TOP 7. I USED AN ALGORITHM TO PUT PROPER RANKINGS ON EACH CONTESTANT, ACCOUNTING FOR HOW NEW THE SONG IS AND HOW WELL THE CONTESTANT PERFORMED (IF IT'S DONE BEFORE, HOW WELL RELATIVE TO THEIR PEERS).

So I've been back looking at WNTS song choices and seeing who among the Top 7 is best at introducing unique music to the Idol stage. This is probably going to sound obvious to people who really pay attention to the song choices, but this was the ranking from most creative (higher score) to least creative (lower score):

CAN X FACTOR PRODUCE A RELEVANT CONTESTANT, LIKE IDOL (ONCE COULD)?


*EDITOR'S NOTE: THIS POST WAS FIRST WRITTEN IN NOVEMBER 27TH, 2011, WHEN I BRIEFLY WATCHED THE X FACTOR AND WONDERED IF IT COULD PRODUCE A RELEVANT CONTESTANT. THE RESULTS FOLLOW.

I ask this because American Idol's track record of producing modern, current music (aka music seen in the 'top 40') is growing worse and worse by the second. Think of this as the "outside bubble". This is the only way you'd really get the exposure, unless you're country. Let's bring out the big guns, er statistics, shall we? (By the way, songs that lasted on the charts <5 weeks won't be counted; they're pretty much irrelevant).

EXTENSIVE LISTING OF THE TOP 24 IN AMERICAN IDOL 11, WITH VIDEOS AND SONG LISTING

THE TOP 24 OF AMERICAN IDOL

IDOL FINALIST CURRENT RATINGS; BASED ON SONGS THRU HOLLYWOOD


*EDITOR'S NOTE: THIS WAS POSTED INITIALLY IN FEBRUARY 24TH, BEFORE THE SEMIFINALS STARTED. THE DATES OF THEIR CURRENT SONGS ARE LISTED BELOW, AND A CURRENT RATING IS GIVEN. P.S. WHO KNEW JOSHUA WAS THAT CURRENT IN HOLLYWOOD WEEK?

Most current contestants in the show(newest song choice date; all songs 1990s and beyond listed):

EARLY YOUTUBE ANALYSIS OF AI 11 TOP 24




*EDITOR'S NOTE: I WROTE THIS BACK IN FEBRUARY SCOURING THE YOUTUBES OF THE CONTESTANTS. THE RESULTS OF MY ANALYSIS FROM THEIR IDOL FATE FOLLOWS.

1) Aaron Marcellus--Good voice insofar as I can tell from youtubes. Has past Hollywood experience, is 27 years old, and seems like a vet at this thing which could help him stay consistent in performances on the Idol stage. A bit old fashioned though, and my bet is that he can do well within the competition as Idol's token black contestant, but won't succeed because he prefers R&B over hip hop. Too bad.
RESULT: PRESCIENT. GOOD BUT IRRELEVANT AS HE SHOWED ON THE STAGE.

THE CONCEPT OF THE SPRINGBOARD AND THE SHIELD


THE CONCEPT OF THE SPRINGBOARD AND THE SHIELD

*Editor's note: I wrote this all the way back on March 2nd. This was before the top 13 started, and right after the semifinals results which happened February 28th. If you read below, that means I predicted the results fairly accurately using this principle--only Elise seems to be way overrated and Hollie was underrated. One could argue Hollie's long stay means that Jessica has a fairly strong shield protecting her, so she might actually win this.

This probably belongs more to the "Grassy Knoll" Thread more than anything, but I'm too lazy to bump it up, and the spoilers page is my friend. So here it goes:

I've noticed that TPTB have pimped, or at least, allowed a few of the same sort contestants into the top 13.

Don't get me wrong--this always happens--but I think they realize that a lot of their shock eliminations come from when the contestant doesn't have any buffer, or when the contestant was the weakest link among the buffer. I don't believe in the idea being the only type of one thing would allow you to suck up all the votes--the last time that happened was AI4's Carrie Underwood--she had a super weak shield that didn't last long (Lindsey Cardinale) but still triumphed despite being the sole rep and being shield-less much of the way. As history shows, shocks and winners occur through the concept of springboards and shields.