Showing posts with label Predictions. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Predictions. Show all posts

Friday, May 24, 2013

FINDING YOUR AUDIENCE: SINGING COMPETITIONS VS AMERICAN RADIO


So we at jork vs TPTB know that the singing competitions mostly want to create a good show with filler, but with regards to having "marketability for the radio?" Take a peek after the jump for analysis.

Thursday, March 14, 2013

AI12 ALGORITHM-BASED POWER RANKINGS, WITH EMPHASIS ON SONG CHOICE

So for the first official post of AI12, we're going to analyze the forward momentum of the contestants with a heavy emphasis on song choice/creativity. In other words, do an old song? Get docked off. Do a song that has been done a bajillion times on the Idol stage? Get docked off. Performing the song well is only one part of the equation. 

Wednesday, May 23, 2012

EPOCH 4 (MORE WGWGS): THE CONCEPT OF "PIGGYBACKING" AND WHY IT MATTERS POST-IDOL

So as mentioned, Epoch 3 was a trainwreck: WGWG infestation led to massive flops, and Idol went zig with soft, coffeehouse rock while the world went zag with electropop and hip hop. There couldn't have been a greater clash in styles ever since the Jackie Chan met Chris Tucker in Rush Hour. So what did Epoch 4 have in store for us?



Well, let's just say Idol didn't learn its lesson (if you can already tell from the title above). Take a look after the jump:

EPOCH 3 (THE WGWG ERA): THE CONCEPT OF "PIGGYBACKING" AND WHY IT MATTERS POST-IDOL

This deals with 2008-2010, or AI7-AI9, and when Idol allowed its instruments and unleashed KrisAllenty LeeDeWyzeDavid Cook, er I mean, Kristy Lee Cook, on us, we got our WGWG era--the WGWGs started happening. And it's continuing to this day.




We'll see, er, what caused Idol's harm in the mainstream, below the jump:

Tuesday, May 22, 2012

EPOCH 2 (IDOL'S GOLDEN YEARS): THE CONCEPT OF "PIGGYBACKING" AND WHY IT MATTERS POST-IDOL

Continuing on to 2005-2007, or AI4-AI6, when Idol unleashed its rockers and had their contestants pull their weight (we won't be hearing that after this).



This is a continuation of my last article, the first epoch.


Monday, May 21, 2012

EPOCH 1 (AND SO IT BEGINS): THE CONCEPT OF "PIGGYBACKING" AND WHY IT MATTERS POST-IDOL

The concept of this post derives heavily from my other post where I questioned Idol's relevance in the music industry by drawing out treasure troves of data on its more successful contestants. I already brought up the concept of "piggybacking"--or basically leeching off of an artist who's having success at that time--in that particular post. It's the key here--as you'll see, why did Idol have successes in Kelly Clarkson, Carrie Underwood, and Chris Daughtry? The way to get one foot in the door is to piggyback.

My goal is to list the top 10 best selling albums and singles of each year that Idol ran on, and highlight the ones that are similar (or somewhat similar) to Idol's more successful contestants.

And really, the goal is this:


Here we'll focus on Epoch 1, which is generally known as seasons AI1-AI3, or 2002 to 2004, when Idol was finding its footing, didn't have rockers, encouraged diva belters, etc. We'll take a look at how those contestants did in the real world, and what sold back then:

Sunday, May 20, 2012

IDOLMETRICS: THE FINAL BATTLE: JESSICA VS PHILLIP.

Now, let's focus on the two remaining contestants duking it out to become the winner. Ladies first, so Jessica:

IDOLMETRICS: AI11 CONTESTANTS, #3-13: HOW THEY FARED STATISTICALLY

In a continuation from the last Idolmetrics post, this shows the how the contestants gained the score they did.

IDOLMETRICS: SONG CREATIVITY/SINGING MOMENTUM, WEEK BY WEEK

As you've most likely read from my previous mathematics (or some would say Idolmetrics) studies, these calculations are based on song creativity and how well the contestant sings their song. If they sing a song that's been done a ton on Idol, they get docked points because their score is then compared to the average of that song. If they do a new song, the contestant receives a straight up score (that explains why Phil Phillips routinely ranks high; he needs to put less effort to produce the same amount of impact as a Joshua Ledet or Jessica Sanchez, given how often they choose songs that have been done many times). The numbers are scaled and added to each other each week to give a composite of the contestant's momentum below.

A CONVERSATION BETWEEN RYAN, JIMMY AND NIGEL, REGARDING POTENTIAL WINNERS

May 11, Friday 5:00 AM

Nigel and Ryan walk into Jimmy Iovine's Interscope office to discuss who should be the winner of the show.

*Jimmy: Alright, so we have an important issue to discuss. Who the hell I'm going to have to market as the winner of this show. Nigel, can you tell who's been leading the votes all this time?

IDOLMETRICS: PREDICTING IDOL VOTING PATTERNS, FROM T13 TO T5



EDITOR'S NOTE: THIS POST WAS FIRST WRITTEN MAY 4, 2012.


THE CONCEPT OF THE SPRINGBOARD AND THE SHIELD


THE CONCEPT OF THE SPRINGBOARD AND THE SHIELD

*Editor's note: I wrote this all the way back on March 2nd. This was before the top 13 started, and right after the semifinals results which happened February 28th. If you read below, that means I predicted the results fairly accurately using this principle--only Elise seems to be way overrated and Hollie was underrated. One could argue Hollie's long stay means that Jessica has a fairly strong shield protecting her, so she might actually win this.

This probably belongs more to the "Grassy Knoll" Thread more than anything, but I'm too lazy to bump it up, and the spoilers page is my friend. So here it goes:

I've noticed that TPTB have pimped, or at least, allowed a few of the same sort contestants into the top 13.

Don't get me wrong--this always happens--but I think they realize that a lot of their shock eliminations come from when the contestant doesn't have any buffer, or when the contestant was the weakest link among the buffer. I don't believe in the idea being the only type of one thing would allow you to suck up all the votes--the last time that happened was AI4's Carrie Underwood--she had a super weak shield that didn't last long (Lindsey Cardinale) but still triumphed despite being the sole rep and being shield-less much of the way. As history shows, shocks and winners occur through the concept of springboards and shields.