AMERICAN NINJA WARRIOR, SEASON 5: MOVING ON TO VEGAS

Congrats to the following athletes who have made it to the next round:
(COMP=completed 2nd round course; in parentheses and # is rank in the beginning round)
With ~, are Vegas veterans from last year; ranking from last year is out of the 90 that went to Vegas
~ without a number means went to Japan (Vegas equivalent in past years)
% Means has participated in competition in past years but didn't go to Vegas/Japan before
With * are Stage 2 ranks in Vegas last year, adding in Vegas runs, out of 24 participants

IDOL CONTESTANT SINGING ABILITY VERSUS SONG CREATIVITY

So I recently wanted to analyze the trends between how far Idol contestants made it relative to their singing ability and song freshness/creativity factor. I'll explain more in detail later, but for now, toy around with the complete set of data I made, exclude several seasons or placements, and see how the trends hold up. I'll elucidate in more detail later. The higher the placement value, song creativity factor, and the singing ability, the better.

ANALYZING THE FORGOTTEN WGs OF IDOL IN EPOCH 3

So, as we've already established in Epoch 3, we've had a ton of WGWGs win. But what about the remaining WGs that were cast by the wayside? It might be constructive to see what brought the eliminations of these WGs, to see if there could be "strategic" casting of WGs in the future. Since this first occurred in Epoch 3, we'll analyze the ones found in Epoch 3. We'll only focus on the ones who got eliminated outside of the top five, because if they're in the top five, clearly the audience favors them.

PROGNOSTICATING IDOL'S FUTURE, BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS, PART II

Continuing the series from Part I, we now focus on how the competition (both internationally and other domestic singing competitions) have affected Idol. Hint: it's not good.

PROGNOSTICATING IDOL'S FUTURE, BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS, PART I

So, as we've effortlessly established here, Idol is a downward slope. Their declining ratings allowed their competitors to smell blood and spawn more singing (karaoke?) competitions, both of which started in 2011 (ahem, X Factor USA and The Voice). But for Part I of this article, we'll only focus on how Idol is shooting themselves in the foot in affecting its future. In part II, we'll focus on how Idol's competitors might screw up Idol's contestant pool and contestant success in future years.

ELEKTROLYTES: ABDC'S PARKOUR GROUP

So, in the vein of American Ninja Warrior as seen in my previous post, I've also been keeping a close tab on America's Best Dance Crew (2nd season running watching this). First of all, a couple of thoughts: 1) It's way better than any of the so called "dance" shows out there. Primarily, it's all hip hop, which means that we aren't bored with old-styles of dancing that permeate a lot of these shows. Also, check a list of the theme weeks: Britney Spears-Flo Rida-Madonna-Drake-JLo-Pitbull-Rihanna-LMFAO-Katy Perry. Yeah, mind-numbing electropop dreck aside, isn't this the song list that Idol aspires to get? Won't it be hilarious to see a contestant cover "Club Can't Handle Me" or "Wide Awake" or "Get Right" by JLo? Contestants have handled the first before in these singing competitions, so don't think it's impossible.

AMERICAN NINJA WARRIOR: PRELIMINARY STATS

So another show I've gotten myself into is American Ninja Warrior. I started watching three years ago, and it's another one of those shows (besides sports, and apparently Idol) where it's just easy to compile stats. I'm a parkour enthusiast and do a bit of outdoor training, so it's only natural that I'd watch this show as well.

IDOL SONGS, YOUTUBE VIEWS BY CONTESTANT

Ok, this is going to be a pretty important thread for Idol's prospects in the mainstream. Since everything is more or less being relayed via the Internet nowadays, it's important to get a ton of hits in your youtube views. Has Idol done that in the new world? Let's take a look, after the jump:

EPOCH 4 (MORE WGWGS): THE CONCEPT OF "PIGGYBACKING" AND WHY IT MATTERS POST-IDOL

So as mentioned, Epoch 3 was a trainwreck: WGWG infestation led to massive flops, and Idol went zig with soft, coffeehouse rock while the world went zag with electropop and hip hop. There couldn't have been a greater clash in styles ever since the Jackie Chan met Chris Tucker in Rush Hour. So what did Epoch 4 have in store for us?

Well, let's just say Idol didn't learn its lesson (if you can already tell from the title above). Take a look after the jump:

EPOCH 3 (THE WGWG ERA): THE CONCEPT OF "PIGGYBACKING" AND WHY IT MATTERS POST-IDOL

This deals with 2008-2010, or AI7-AI9, and when Idol allowed its instruments and unleashed KrisAllenty LeeDeWyzeDavid Cook, er I mean, Kristy Lee Cook, on us, we got our WGWG era--the WGWGs started happening. And it's continuing to this day.

We'll see, er, what caused Idol's harm in the mainstream, below the jump:

EPOCH 2 (IDOL'S GOLDEN YEARS): THE CONCEPT OF "PIGGYBACKING" AND WHY IT MATTERS POST-IDOL

Continuing on to 2005-2007, or AI4-AI6, when Idol unleashed its rockers and had their contestants pull their weight (we won't be hearing that after this).

This is a continuation of my last article, the first epoch.

EPOCH 1 (AND SO IT BEGINS): THE CONCEPT OF "PIGGYBACKING" AND WHY IT MATTERS POST-IDOL

The concept of this post derives heavily from my other post where I questioned Idol's relevance in the music industry by drawing out treasure troves of data on its more successful contestants. I already brought up the concept of "piggybacking"--or basically leeching off of an artist who's having success at that time--in that particular post. It's the key here--as you'll see, why did Idol have successes in Kelly Clarkson, Carrie Underwood, and Chris Daughtry? The way to get one foot in the door is to piggyback.

My goal is to list the top 10 best selling albums and singles of each year that Idol ran on, and highlight the ones that are similar (or somewhat similar) to Idol's more successful contestants.

And really, the goal is this:

Here we'll focus on Epoch 1, which is generally known as seasons AI1-AI3, or 2002 to 2004, when Idol was finding its footing, didn't have rockers, encouraged diva belters, etc. We'll take a look at how those contestants did in the real world, and what sold back then:

IDOLMETRICS: THE FINAL BATTLE: JESSICA VS PHILLIP.

Now, let's focus on the two remaining contestants duking it out to become the winner. Ladies first, so Jessica:

IDOLMETRICS: AI11 CONTESTANTS, #3-13: HOW THEY FARED STATISTICALLY

In a continuation from the last Idolmetrics post, this shows the how the contestants gained the score they did.

IDOLMETRICS: SONG CREATIVITY/SINGING MOMENTUM, WEEK BY WEEK

As you've most likely read from my previous mathematics (or some would say Idolmetrics) studies, these calculations are based on song creativity and how well the contestant sings their song. If they sing a song that's been done a ton on Idol, they get docked points because their score is then compared to the average of that song. If they do a new song, the contestant receives a straight up score (that explains why Phil Phillips routinely ranks high; he needs to put less effort to produce the same amount of impact as a Joshua Ledet or Jessica Sanchez, given how often they choose songs that have been done many times). The numbers are scaled and added to each other each week to give a composite of the contestant's momentum below.

IDOL: AVOIDING SONGS 1990s AND BEYOND LIKE THE PLAGUE

EDITOR'S NOTE: NEWEST ARTICLE FOR TODAY. COMPARING IDOL'S SONGS IN 11 SEASONS WITH THE SONGS DONE ON THE SING OFF, THE VOICE, AND THE X FACTOR US. I'M LOOKING FOR HOW MANY SONGS '90s AND BEYOND THAT THESE SHOWS HAVE DONE, COMPARED TO IDOL.

I'll also keep this for posterity, because it's an interesting topic: Songs done on The Voice in two seasons that never been done on Idol for 11 seasons. And there's a ton of them--I think one of those random websites said that the Voice has a pretty high current song rating, and we know how Idol's fossils goes. And given that both are in the US, one would think if it's done on the Voice, it should be on Idol, because there aren't any real clearance issues, right? I'm also going to include the audition songs, and put an asterisk on the ones that weren't done on the finals, but were done elsewhere.

A CONVERSATION BETWEEN RYAN, JIMMY AND NIGEL, REGARDING POTENTIAL WINNERS

May 11, Friday 5:00 AM

Nigel and Ryan walk into Jimmy Iovine's Interscope office to discuss who should be the winner of the show.

*Jimmy: Alright, so we have an important issue to discuss. Who the hell I'm going to have to market as the winner of this show. Nigel, can you tell who's been leading the votes all this time?

IDOLMETRICS: PREDICTING IDOL VOTING PATTERNS, FROM T13 TO T5

EDITOR'S NOTE: THIS POST WAS FIRST WRITTEN MAY 4, 2012.

RANDY VS MATH: SONG ANALYSIS AND THE ABILITY TO SING

*EDITOR'S NOTE: THIS POST WAS DATED BACK ON APRIL 23, 2012, AFTER THE TOP 7. I USED AN ALGORITHM TO PUT PROPER RANKINGS ON EACH CONTESTANT, ACCOUNTING FOR HOW NEW THE SONG IS AND HOW WELL THE CONTESTANT PERFORMED (IF IT'S DONE BEFORE, HOW WELL RELATIVE TO THEIR PEERS).

So I've been back looking at WNTS song choices and seeing who among the Top 7 is best at introducing unique music to the Idol stage. This is probably going to sound obvious to people who really pay attention to the song choices, but this was the ranking from most creative (higher score) to least creative (lower score):

CAN X FACTOR PRODUCE A RELEVANT CONTESTANT, LIKE IDOL (ONCE COULD)?

*EDITOR'S NOTE: THIS POST WAS FIRST WRITTEN IN NOVEMBER 27TH, 2011, WHEN I BRIEFLY WATCHED THE X FACTOR AND WONDERED IF IT COULD PRODUCE A RELEVANT CONTESTANT. THE RESULTS FOLLOW.

I ask this because American Idol's track record of producing modern, current music (aka music seen in the 'top 40') is growing worse and worse by the second. Think of this as the "outside bubble". This is the only way you'd really get the exposure, unless you're country. Let's bring out the big guns, er statistics, shall we? (By the way, songs that lasted on the charts <5 weeks won't be counted; they're pretty much irrelevant).