Sunday, May 20, 2012


Now, let's focus on the two remaining contestants duking it out to become the winner. Ladies first, so Jessica:

As you can see above, Jessica's creativity is quite poor as well, which is unfortunate, because given the youtubes, she had the potential to introduce current stuff to the show. Anyway, that might hurt her at the end. While, like Hollie, she's excellent at doing songs above their averages to produce very good scores (her moment scores are with "Dance With My Father" and "And I Am Telling You"). Also, she's minimized her negatives, although that Aerosmith choice last week was all kinds of dumb and gave her the worst score she's ever received, so that's not the right time to drop. Nonetheless, she's consistently good, and voting patterns more or less put her between 1-3 throughout much of the season.

Now, let's compare her to Phil:

This is a battle that's really quite different. Phil's gaining most of his momentum through creativity: his rate of introducing new songs is 17% higher than Jessica. He's also rock consistent, particularly at the early part of the season, so while he lacks moments (his two high scores are at 79, between U Got It Bad and Volcano) the receiving of straight-up scores are really helping him. He did hit a rough patch where he received quite a few negatives, but he's recovered as seen by those high scores lately. A bit Hollie-esque, just instead of good singing, good creativity.

At the end of the day, Jessica's score is higher--her body of work in terms of singing outmatched Phil's creativity, and she didn't hit that middle patch rough spot like Phil did. Here's the tally:

So I know what you're all thinking: do I think Jessica is going to win? Unfortunately, this isn't a straight-up competition where vocals and creativity take precedence, and clearly other factors (geography/ethnicity/whatever) also are important. So I've adjusted the scores on a weekly basis to account for bottom three appearances, and this is what I have:

Phil, having never been to the bottom three, is receiving the same score as he did. Jessica, having been eliminated once, lost a ton of points (342.7, to be exact) for her underachieving in the T7(i) round. While that's a while back, I think that still plays a role here. I actually had Jessica way closer at the top four to Phillip, before Phillip did well at the top three and Jessica somewhat bombed (the spread was Phillip--50.6% to Jess's 49.4%), but now it has rapidly switched to be like Phillip at 58% to Jessica at 42% on neutral territory (which assumes that both contestants sing equally at the finals, according to WNTS standards).

I've talked about this--this means there needs to be a role reversal--Jessica needs to sing as well as Phillip was creative at the top three, and Phillip needs to bomb as heavily as Jessica did in the top three, for the votes to swing. Even then, it would probably be very close. Otherwise, I'm just really expecting a Phil landslide--the audience doesn't generally vote on finale performances, which are largely gimmick performances, so I'm thinking it's over. Phil at 58% of the votes seems logical anyway.

The winner: Phil Phillips

1 comment:

  1. This is, of course, assuming that the results for Top 7 were not falsified. I have a VERY hard time believing Hollie is in the B3 virtually every week from top 11 on and somehow she skips B3 this week while Josh/Jessica are both in the B3 and then never come close again (until Top 2).